AI Concerns

Map/D23/23.4

III · D23 · 23.4

Uncertainty and disagreement about probability

From "vanishing" (LeCun, Ng) to double-digit (Hinton, Bengio, Russell); most policy frameworks now include catastrophic-risk provisions regardless of the priors.

Serious · 3Documented at scaleNowRisk 15

Severity

3/5

Likelihood

5/5

In the hierarchy

  1. Part III: Governance, Power & Existential Concerns
  2. D23. Catastrophic & Existential Risk
  3. 23.4 Debate & epistemics of x-risk

Virtues and principles to explore

Held as inquiry, not as a verdict.

  • Hope

    Hope

    Stand in uncertainty, where there is room to act — not in optimism or despair.

  • Humility

    Center principle

    The map is larger than any one of us.

  • Courage

    Hope

    Act without the comfort of certainty.

Starter questions

Written to probe curiosity and learning, not accusation.

  1. 01What is already being done about this, and by whom — and how would we find out without assuming?
  2. 02What conversation have we not yet had about this — and who needs to be in it?
  3. 03Who is served by addressing this, and who benefits if we leave it unnamed?
  4. 04Whose experience of Uncertainty and disagreement about probability is not yet in the room — and how would we hear it?

Also on this branch

Frameworks and sources

Writing and incidents

Open indexes first. Then, if you wish, ask Grok to search the live web for this concern — one request, cached for the rest of this session.

NewsScholarIncidentsOECD monitorMIT repositoryWikipedia
See it on the mapTest an initiative against this

Catastrophe, loss of control, and the disagreement about how to think about either.